When and how to use the overbet to maximize your winnings

The overbet in no limit poker is a bet that is more important than the pot. To approach this article well, it is best to know the basics of game theory. However, I will all the same recall an essential notion that we will use subsequently.

Let’s assume a simple situation:

2 agen domino 99 players A and B who regularly play together compete against each other. A hand comes in and the stroke unfolds along a very classic line until the river. The cards on the board as well as the way the players played in this move allow both players to easily target their opponent’s hand range. Thanks to his analysis, A deduces that B has a fairly weak game, with which B will only beat bluffs.

In such a situation, game theory says that when there are two players playing optimally within the meaning of game theory, A should bet with a frequency which depends on the amount of his bet.

Let us take two concrete examples:

  • If A bets half the pot, then B will have odds of 3/1 and A will have to have 25% bluff and 75% value bet in his range.
  • If A bets the pot, then B will have odds of 2/1 and A will need to have 1/3 bluff and 2/3 value bet in his range to play optimally according to game theory.
  • To play at balance you must have a bluff frequency linked to the amount of your bet. Thus the opponent will not be able to make a certain frequency of calls profitable, and thus make a profit.

We can generalize these cases by stating the optimal bluff frequency:

  • To remember resteal poker
  • Optimal bluff frequency

In the sense of game theory, an optimal bluffing frequency is a bluffing frequency that gives no calling range for villain making a profit.

Note: We can note in passing that if A plays at Nash’s equilibrium (ie: according to the optimal game theory), then the expectation of winning a call from B is equal to the expectation gain of a fold of B, is equal to zero.

Let: EV (call from B) = EV (fold from B) = 0.

  • In summary we can see that to be unusable, the bluff frequency must be a function of the value of the bet, so as to have a bluff percentage of, Overbet Poker
  • Attention, in this case, the word bluff designates any bets while the opponent would have a better hand than ours.

We therefore notice that we have a frequency of bluff which results from the value of our bet river, however how to know the optimal value of this bet river?

Will the amount of this bet really change our expectation of winning?

This article aims to know when A should bet and how much he should bet in such a situation in order to maximize his winnings.